Thursday, July 29, 2010

Market Power


Just perusing the NYT today I read three articles in succession that all had to do with the power of markets to motivate people, but each article was missing in-depth analysis of what markets are and what they motivate people to do.

Before I critique the articles, you need to know something about real markets. When I say real, I’m not talking about the markets of Milton Friedman, or even Adam Smith. Whether or not we want certain markets, if demand exists the market will arise, provided the people have some money.

Often called black markets or grey markets, conservatives don’t seem to adore them. But love them or hate them, you’re going to get markets. And they’re going to make people do crazy things. Crazy like beheading the competition, and I’m not talking metaphorically. See the battle between pharmaceuticals in Mexico.

First up, the immigration law in Arizona. Let’s leave aside the facts that actual undocumented immigration has been going down, and crime has been decreasing, and that the real incentive behind the law is to “take back our country,” probably from a non-white president.

Nowhere in the article does it ask why people risk their lives to come across. They come for jobs. Next question. Why aren’t there enough jobs where they come from? Now the answers get more complex, but all related to markets, specifically the markets of international capital. We can revisit Adam Smith, who was a big fan of trade between nations (actually, states). Although Smith thought we should be trading goods, capital should remain at home. This was such a no-brainer for him, that he didn’t even think there needed to be restrictions on the flow of capital. He thought people would be constrained in their behavior by their love of country. His mistake. Instead, the power of markets trumps patriotism. You can’t begin to approach real immigration reform without looking at the entire market system, i.e. seeing what’s going on with capital flows relative to labor markets. Capital (meaning finance) seeks the greatest rate of return. Guess what. So does labor.

Second is an article that explores the tension between free health care in Haiti, and private health care. To first clear things up, we need to call a spade a spade (a saying from the Greeks). Private health care really means for-profit health care. There could be nonprofit health care, but although the author does call the US system for-profit, he claims the little “private” clinics in Haiti are analogous to our for-profit system. He also uses a little slight-of-hand by returning to calling our system “private.” There is a big difference, and they should not be conflated.

A small nonprofit clinic needs to make enough money to support its staff and overhead. A large for-profit insurance company in the US needs to make a profit for its investors. Also, please consider the incentives, which is what markets are all about. If you make money off of sick people, then the more sick people, the more money you make, which doesn’t give you any incentive to prioritize preventative medicine. Instead, it gives insurance companies a reason to fund campaigns to thwart policy that restricts fast food and cheap sucrose. (I’m not saying they do, but I wouldn’t be surprised.) The power of the market gives insurance companies reason to fight any reform.

I think you’re beginning to get the gist of how to analyze markets. It’s a bit like “follow the money.” Try it yourself on the following articles!

Editorial: Who Profits, Who Learns?

Mexican Drug Trafficking

Sunday, July 25, 2010

The Pendulum Will Swing


The sale of garden gloves is about to explode in Arizona.

Why? Because Arizona is about to get what its misguided immigration policies earn for it, a dearth of workers. SB 1070 is about to go into effect, and one of the results is that undocumented workers are leaving. Businesses are closing, not because they were owned by the undocumented, but because they made money off of them. Apartments are emptying. Shopping centers are closing.

Many people, businesses, and even government agencies depend on undocumented labor. I was once riding in a car with an undocumented friend in northern Mississippi, and we passed the INS regional office (now called ICE ICE BABY). My friend said, “See that building? I helped build it. Half the workers on the site didn’t have papers.”

The exodus of workers will cause other dominos to fall. Tax revenues will go down. The budget will be harder to balance. Cuts will be made. Teachers and firemen will lose their jobs.

The first law of ecology is also the first law of policy. You can’t do just one thing. One of the kickers is that what the law was intended to fix, crime, isn’t even broken. Crime has been going down in Arizona for the last six years. SB 1070 wasn’t designed to fix an immigration problem; it was designed to win xenophobic political points.

Here’s my little extrapolation of how it’s going to play out from here. I call this, Robert’s Rule of the Pendulum. Arizona will be so strapped for tax revenue and workers who do jobs no one else either wants to do, or can do as well, that they will follow California’s lead and legalize recreational use of marijuana. Revenues will go up, and new workers will flow from the rest of the US. They will have created a truly “business-friendly” climate.

And then those nice Republicans who voted for SB 1070 can finally pull off their worn garden gloves that they bought to tend their own garden, toke a little, and then put them back on to plant a different kind of harvest.